Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
06/12/2010 - Polokwane, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Algeria and Slovenia open their World Cup Group C schedules on Sunday under a ton of pressure for a result.
Both clubs are underdogs to advance past England and the United States in the group, meaning getting off to a good start in the opener is imperative.
"In football you never know," Algeria midfielder Hassan Yebda told fifa.com. "We will do our best and play the first game against Slovenia and try to win. The first game is very, very important, if we can win it will be better for us. Slovenia though have a good team."
While Algeria is gearing up for just its third-ever World Cup, a familiar face is leading the way.
Coach Rabah Saadane, who also coached the team 24 years ago in its last World Cup appearance in Mexico, is at the helm again - for the fifth time - and it will take all his wisdom to get the Desert Foxes to the knockout stage.
On the field, midfielder Karim Ziani will be the key, not only against Slovenia on Sunday, but for the entire tournament. The playmaker plies his trade with German Bundesliga side Wolfsburg, and he has the versatility to pull the strings in the middle of the field, or shift out wide in a more indirect attacking role.
Slovenia returns to the World Cup, eight years after its only other appearance, hoping it learned from that experience. Slovenia lost all three of its matches in the group stage in 2002 and was outscored 7-2.
But assistant coach Milan Miklavic is optimistic about this year's club.
"The team looks good, the team looks very good, as always," he told RTV Slovenia. "Can we expect a positive result? We are optimistic because the players in recent games have shown good results, so we need to be optimistic.
"For all the teams, the first game will be a very big opportunity. All teams are living in some uncertainty about what will happen, and that is the special charm of championships."
<< Federer continues Halle dominance, Hewitt up next
Halle, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer moved a step closer to his
sixth title at the Gerry Webber Open with a straight-set semifinal win over
Germany's Philipp Petzschner, and will next face Lleyton Hewitt in Sunday's
final.
<< Argentina holds off Nigeria
Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gabriel Heinz's goal in the
sixth minute was enough to lead Argentina to a 1-0 win over Nigeria at Ellis
Park Stadium on Saturday in Group B play.
Heinz headed home the lone goal from
<< Sharapova to play Li for Birmingham crown
Birmingham, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Maria Sharapova and Li Na were
semifinal winners Saturday and will meet for the title of the Aegon Classic on
Sunday.
The second-seeded Sharapova advanced first with a 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 victory o
<< Sunshine State foes resume set at the Trop
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Sunshine State warms up with the second of a three-game
interleague set between the Florida Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays at
Tropicana Field tonight.
Despite being just three games over .500 at home so far this season
Injury-depleted Germany opens WC play against Australia >>
Durban, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany opens the World Cup on Sunday
against Australia, and despite a rash of injuries prior to the tournament,
coach Joachim Loew is confident the three-time winners are still a threat.
Germany
Bjorn takes 3-shot lead in Portugal >>
Estoril, Portugal (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denmark's Thomas Bjorn fired his second
consecutive seven-under 65 to take sole possession of the lead Saturday after
the third round of the Portugal Open.
Chasing his first win in four years, Bjorn
Querrey, Fish set for All-American final in London >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Americans Sam Querrey and Mardy Fish will
play for the title Sunday at the Queen's Club after both won semifinal matches
in the Wimbledon tuneup on Saturday.
The seventh-seeded Querrey rallied for a 6-
Gonzo sidelined until August >>
Santiago, Chile (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fernando Gonzalez of Chile will be
sidelined until August because of a knee injury.
Gonzalez said he is taking the next 10 weeks off after being diagnosed with
bilateral patellar tendinitis. He
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting