Bruins go Duck hunting in Eugene

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/04/2009 - Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - McArthur Court in Eugene is the site of today's Pac-10 Conference clash between the UCLA Bruins and the Oregon Ducks.

UCLA opened Pac-10 play on Friday against Oregon State, and the result of that tilt was a 69-46 road victory. That win was the seventh in a row for the Bruins, who are now 11-2 overall. The schedule has been fairly soft for UCLA, which lost to Michigan and Texas, the two best teams that the club has faced thus far.

Oregon also opened the Pac-10 portion of its schedule on Friday, falling to USC in an 83-62 final in front of a disappointed home crowd. That loss halted a modest two-game win streak for the Ducks, who are a disappointing 6-7 overall. They have lost by double digits to the only three ranked teams that they have faced thus far and are considered underdogs today.

UCLA has won its last three meetings with Oregon and owns a commanding 79-25 advantage in the all-time series between the teams.

Heading into Friday's game against Oregon State, UCLA was averaging 77.2 ppg on 50.1 percent shooting from the floor while limiting opponents to 57.9 ppg on 42.5 percent shooting. Darren Collison was scoring 14.3 ppg and dishing out 5.3 apg through the first 12 outings of the campaign, and he came through with a 16-point effort against Oregon State. Michael Roll also tallied 16 points in the contest, as he nailed all four of his three-point attempts off the bench. The third and final double-digit scorer in the win was Drew Gordon, as he hit all four of his shots from the floor en route to 11 points. UCLA led 37-16 at intermission after holding the Beavers to seven field goals in the first half. The second half was much more competitive, but the large halftime lead proved to be more than enough to earn the Bruins a win. They forced 20 turnovers in the clash and finished with a 12-4 edge on the offensive boards.

Oregon is scoring a respectable 73.8 ppg this season, but the club's output would certainly be higher if not for 41.4 percent shooting from the floor. Defensively, the Ducks are permitting 76.9 ppg to the opposition. Tajuan Porter is the leading scorer for Oregon with 14.2 ppg, but his 37.9 percent shooting is clearly disappointing. Michael Dunigan checks in with 11.2 ppg and 6.0 rpg, while Garrett Sim provides 10.6 ppg. The fourth and final double- digit scorer for the Ducks is LeKendric Longmire with 10.2 ppg. In the ugly loss to USC on Friday, Oregon connected on only 37.1 percent of its field goal attempts, including an 8-of-28 showing from three-point range. The Ducks were also outscored 17-8 from the foul line and outrebounded by a 44-33 margin. Porter scored 12 points in the setback, while Sim and Kamyron Brown netted 10 points apiece.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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