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07/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We now know that the LeBron James sweepstakes is set to end Thursday night in prime time, but the NHL's biggest free agent may take a little longer to choose his next team.
It was originally expected that Ilya Kovalchuk wouldn't last long on the open market, as is normally the case when supreme NHL talent is available via free agency. But, here we are, nearly a week into hockey's summer shopping season and a certain Russian sniper has still yet to make a decision on his future.
Heading into free agency it appeared the New Jersey Devils, who acquired Kovalchuk from the Atlanta Thrashers at the last trade deadline, and the Los Angeles Kings had the best chance of signing the five-time 40-goal scorer, but now it seems that leaving the NHL to play back home in Russia is a distinct possibility.
At the present time, smart money says the Devils have the best chance at signing Kovalchuk, but news reports out of Russia are suggesting that SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL is close to locking up the superstar for $9 million a year.
Now, the Kings, who were said to be out of the Kovi sweepstakes earlier this week when he reportedly turned down LA's offer of 13 years, $84 million, are said to be back in the race.
Also, depending on who you listen to, the New York Islanders are in the mix to sign Kovalchuk, but if you believe that, then I've got a Lighthouse Project at Long Island to sell you.
Through all these rumors, we've heard next-to-nothing from the Kovalchuk camp. On Monday, Kovalchuk's North American agent, Jay Grossman, revealed on Twitter that his client was "looking to make a decision on his future today," but eight hours later we were told there would be "no announcement tonight." If that was an elaborate plan by Grossman to increase his Twitter followers, then it worked, but we haven't heard anything of consequence from the agent since.
If I were Kovalchuk, it wouldn't take me long to figure out that the Kings were my best NHL option.
With the Devils, Kovalchuk would maybe have a better chance to win a Stanley Cup next year or two seasons from now, but the Kings and their talented, young roster are set up to compete for titles for the next decade or so. All LA really lacks is a potent sniper, and with 338 goals in 621 career games, there has been no one with more tallies than Kovalchuk since he entered the league with the Thrashers back in 2001-02.
Only Alex Ovechkin is a better pure scorer and considering Kovalchuk's countryman is signed with Washington through 2020-21, we may never see Ovie hit the open market. So, if a goal-scorer is what you covet, there is no better option than Kovalchuk. That being said, Kings general manager Dean Lombardi needs to find a way to sign Kovalchuk without jeopardizing his young team's salary cap situation in the future.
Devils general manager Lou Lamoriello also has cap issues to think about when considering signing Kovalchuk. The team will likely need to unload money before the start of the regular season to make the cap situation work.
As for Kovalchuk's KHL option, there is little the North American media can offer on that subject. Kovalchuk's Russian agent suggested earlier this week that his client was certainly leaning towards staying in the NHL, but we can't really know how strongly the winger is considering playing professionally in his home country.
If Kovalchuk winds up playing in the KHL, it would be a huge loss for North American hockey. There are few players who can take over a game offensively like Kovalchuk, and a move to Russia would rob NHL fans of a chance to witness one of the game's greatest talents.
One hopes that Kovalchuk's ultimate decision isn't based primarily on money, but it would be hard to blame him if it was. For all the knocks on his game, like he doesn't play defense or the fact that has never even won a playoff series, Kovalchuk's unique sniping ability allows him to command top dollar and, at 27 years of age, there is no better time to capitalize on his value to a prospective NHL or KHL team.
Kovalchuk's impending decision may have taken a back seat to LeBron's all- consuming search for an NBA destination, but that doesn't make it of any less interest to die-hard hockey fans. I certainly hope Kovi makes a choice soon, but let's pray he doesn't need to take up an hour of prime time TV in order to come that decision.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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