John Henry - Thoroughbred

Horseracing Betting Lines

10/09/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I remember watching John Henry run in the 1982 Measowlands Cup Handicap in the early days of simulcasting. The evening race was only simulcast within New Jersey, so I made the drive to Atlantic City Race Course from Philadelphia.

The gelding was the even-money favorite in the Meadowlands event with Hall of Fame jockey Bill Shoemaker riding. Even though John Henry finished third, it was an exciting race and helped advance the cause of simulcasting.

John Henry was a truely gifted thoroughbred who kept horse racing alive during a difficult decade. He came along after the three Triple Crown champions of the 1970's.

"John Henry's true legacy was written in people's hearts far more indelibly than his superlative racing career could ever reflect." said John Nicholson, executive director of the Kentucky Horse Park. "John Henry was a testament to the fact that a horse's value is far greater than the sum of his pedigree, conformation, sales price and race record. Winston Churchill said that the outside of a horse is good for the inside of a man, but I would add that horses like John Henry prove that the inside of a horse is even better for the inside of man."

He raced from 1977 to 1984 accumulating almost $6.6 million and nearly as many fans. Trained primarily by Ron McAnally, John Henry ran all over the country. His last four starts were at four different tracks, all victories with Chris McCarron guiding the champ to the winner's circle.

Tom Levinson, stepson of the late owner Sam Rubin said, "John always had fire in his eyes as he circled his opponents in the paddock while they pranced, his eyes glazed with the determination to win. Certainly he was the people's hero."

The three jockeys who climbed into the saddle over the last four years of John Henry's career, Laffit Pincay, Jr., Bill Shoemaker and McCarron, were appropriate pilots.

"What can I say about the legendary John Henry that has not already been said?," commented McCarron. "John meant the world to my family and me. Everywhere he raced, his presence doubled the size of a normal race track crowd. He did so much for racing, even after he retired, that he will be impossible to replace. He will be sorely missed but forever in our hearts."

John Henry was the working guy's racehorse. He came from humble origins and became a two-time Horse of the Year. He also was named champion older male horse in 1981 and was a four-time Eclipse Award winner as top male turf runner.

I also remember him capturing the first running of the Arlington Million, the first $1 million horse race. Three years later John Henry again won the Arlington Million.

John Henry became a legend during his racing career, a legend that grew during his retirement. Many stakes races are rightly named for John Henry, but he was certainly one of a kind.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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