Sabbatini leads Woods by one at Firestone

Golf Betting Lines

08/04/2007 - Akron, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rory Sabbatini struggled early in his round Saturday, but steadied himself and managed to post a two-over 72 to lead by one after three rounds of the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

Sabbatini completed 54 holes at four-under-par 206. He leads after 54 holes for the sixth time in his career and third time this year.

Earlier this year at the Wachovia Championship, Sabbatini led Tiger Woods entering the final round after saying he wanted to face Woods in the final round.

Woods closed with a 69, while Sabbatini struggled to a 74. Woods won by two over Steve Stricker and by four over Sabbatini.

"I think it was mis-interpreted and taken to a new level. People can do that in the media," said Sabbatini of his comments from earlier in the year that Woods was more beatable than ever. "The situation is, I know that if I want to be No. 1 in the world, I've got to compete against No. 1.

"I know if you're playing with Tiger on Sunday, you're in good position and you're in good company. You have to keep challenging yourself."

Meanwhile, Woods played a steady round Saturday with a one-under 69 to get in at three-under-par 207. A bogey at the last hole cost Woods a share of the third- round lead. Woods has won this title five times, including last year, and hasn't finished worse than tied for fourth.

"I feel great. It was hard out there today," said Woods. "It was playing brutal. The wind was all over the place and that made things a lot more interesting than it should have been."

Kenny Perry carded a one-over 71 and is the only other player in red figures on the South Course at Firestone Country Club at one-under-par 209.

Andres Romero and Stuart Appleby both shot 69 Saturday. They were joined at one-over-par 211 in fourth place by Hunter Mahan (71), Chris DiMarco (72), Justin Leonard (71), Scott Verplank (73) and Aaron Baddeley (67).

Master champion Zach Johnson was in second place entering the round, but a quadruple-bogey on the ninth and a double-bogey at the 10th cost him dearly. Two more bogeys on the way in left in at plus-two after a round of 76.

Sabbatini had a bad start as he found a fairway bunker off the tee at the first. His second got out of the sand, but stopped in thick rough left of the fairway. After getting on the green, he lipped out from five feet and walked off with a double-bogey that dropped him into a share of the lead at minus- four with Johnson.

The 31-year-old Sabbatini responded with a two-putt birdie on two to regain one of those lost strokes. However, he came up short of the green at the fourth and was unable to save par.

That bogey let him tied with Woods and Johnson

Woods, playing two groups ahead of Sabbatini, birdied the fourth and came back with a 10-foot birdie putt on six to move to four-under.

Sabbatini quickly regained the lead with a four-foot birdie putt on five. He gave that stroke back with a bogey on the ninth after he missed the fairway with his drive and his second shot.

He pitched his third to the back edge, then got up and down for bogey. Woods was still one down at that point as he found a greenside bunker at the ninth and could not get up and down for par.

Woods atoned for that mistake with a nine-foot birdie putt on the 11th to join Sabbatini at minus-four. Woods parred six straight, including saving par from the 14th fairway while playing No. 13.

He hit his tee shot into the left trees at the last. Woods pitched out, then left himself 22 feet for par. He missed the par-saving putt and dropped one back.

"I just tried to stay as patient as possible," explained Woods, who was the only player in the final three groups without a double-bogey in round three. "I played ultra-conservative today.

"I fired away from a majority of the flags today and just dumped the ball in the center of the green and moved on. If I happened to make a putt, I happened to make a putt. I just tried to hang in there and never give a shot back. You can make double-bogeys out there in a heartbeat."

Sabbatini parred the final nine holes to complete 54 holes at minus-four.

"The way I look at it is, I got my bad round out of the way today," Sabbatini stated. "(Sunday) I just have to go out there and eliminate the mistakes I made today. The key will be to put the ball in the fairway off the tee and once you do that, be patient and don't get over-aggressive."

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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